Pass maps and xG charts via Andre Carlisles' newsletter: https://btvc.beehiiv.com/p/xg-race-chart-pass-networks-nwsl-week3-2024-f916
All other charts via NWSL Analytics, my new favorite twitter follow: https://twitter.com/nwslstat
Game 1: Houston Dash 1-3 Washington Spirit
As a badly suffering Thorns fan, let me just say: Thank the lord for the Houston Dash. One week after a shock defeat of Bay FC amidst the pomp and circumstance of opening night in San Jose, the Dash laid an egg at home against the Spirit, losing 3-1 and hardly putting up a fight after they took an early 4th minute lead.
The Dash and mad hatter manager Fran Alonso are moving right along with Alonso's preferred 3-back, despite the repeated failure of the team to properly execute the formation. Alonso did shift away from the 3-4-3 he trotted out both at Celtic and in the Dash's first two matchups to a theoretically, but-actually-not-at-all more stable 3-5-2. Let's do a quick rundown of the issues Alonso is encountering (and, in many cases, creating):
Maria Sanchez is playing wide left, taking up her usual positions, and has been fantastic going forward. She's the only player creating value on the Dash roster, something shown pretty clearly in the OBV map below. The problem is that she's also asked to play as a pseudo left wing back because a 3-5-2 requires the wide players to provide support to the defense against the opposing wingers. Maria Sanchez does not like to defend. Perhaps so much so that she requested a trade two weeks into the new season and just four months after signing what was at the time the most lucrative contract in NWSL history.
The return of CB Natalie Jacobs marked the first time Alonso has played a natural CB in his back three. The other two CBs --Canadian Sophie Schmidt and Austrian Sarah Puntigam-- are natural holding midfielders. The third --Courtney Peterson-- is a FB. Alonso may be playing more technical players in the defense to allow the Dash to build out from the back. In theory? Sure? In practice? It ain't workin' Fran!
Alonso is playing striker Diana Ordonez as a 10 at the point of his 3-5-2, despite playing a two striker formation. Why? Who knows. Most likely, he intends that Ordonez, an excellent back-to-goal connecting number 9, can get more involved in the build up. Regardless, Ordonez has been near invisible outside of the strong 20 minutes she had in San Jose last week.
As a result of Ordonez playing deeper, Brazilian midfielder Andressa Alves is partnering rookie Amanda West up top. Andressa was the more influential of the non-Sanchez Dash attacking crew, but still struggled to get involved. She seems like a clear candidate to play in the role Alonso has Ordonez flailing in, but Alonso seems to think he's clever enough to have over half his starting eleven playing out of position....and I really can't emphasize enough how poorly it is going for him.
The two holding midfielders, Yuki Nagasato and Elin Rubensson, aren't dropping in often enough to receive the ball from the back three. When they do, you can see flashes of what the Dash want to do: Pass around the back in a compact back 5 and then release Sanchez or RW Avery Patterson when the opposing press is drawn out.
The Spirit are one of the NWSL's most interesting stories through four weeks. My biggest question going into the season was whether Spirit interim manager Adrian Gonzales would force a complex Barcelona-style, technical-possession based system on a Spirit roster that really doesn't have the players to do it yet. The answer, at least through the opening sixth of the season, has been a resounding "no." The Spirit have been one of the NWSL's most vertical, high pressing teams, utilizing the speed and relentless pressing ability of Ouleymata Sarr and Trinity Rodman to win the ball and play through the midfield trio of Croix Bethune, rookie Hal Hershfelt, and Andi Sullivan.
The most interesting tactical tweak Gonzales has made is the decision to shift striker Ashley Hatch wide left in the Spirit's 4-2-3-1 to allow Sarr to lead the Spirit press from a point position. It's a tradeoff that has very clearly worked for Sarr, who was been been the key the Spirit's hereto highly successful press, but much less so for the Hatch and the Spirit's left side. Hatch is about as traditional a nine as one could want: She loves playing with her back to goal, is excellent in the air, and lacks both the pace to get in behind and the creativity to play as an inverted wide midfielder. This means that the Spirit's left side has been, well, non-existent. Everything is funneled through Trinity Rodman, who has had a superb start to the season, but Hatch and Casey Krueger -- who has played all across the backline for her new team-- see very little of the ball.
To say the Spirit are ONLY a vertical team would, however, be incorrect. Their midfield three shows frequent signs of some real cohesion, never more so than on their third goal, a sumptuous back to front move culminating in Bethune finishing off a peach of a cross from RB Gabby Carle. Sullivan, no longer asked to play as a single pivot, looks much more comfortable next to Hershfelt, and Bethune has been a more productive version of Spirit-era Ashley Sanchez through four games, flitting around underneath Sarr and releasing Rodman into space. Against Houston, Bethune relentlessly hunted diagonals against the Dash's narrow shape, understanding that neither Houston wide player was going to track back to cover the Spirit wings. It was a relatively obvious plan of action, but one Bethune picked up and executed almost instantly, generating multiple 1v1s for Sarr, Hatch, and Rodman throughout the match.
The Spirit's front three press against the Dash's bizarre insistence on playing out from the back was a mismatch in every sense of the word. Athletically, Rodman and Sarr were levels above Houston, easily closing passing angles and flustering the Houston back three and midfield when the ball was played to feet. As shown in the "defensive actions" graphic below, Rodman stayed high for most of the match, understanding that Houston was unable to bypass the Spirit midfield to get the ball into Sanchez's feet. In turn, the Dash began to drop Rubensson and Nagasato a little deeper to receive the ball, but Bethune and Hershfelt consistently man-marked the two holding midfielders out of the game. Sanchez's unwillingness to track back allowed Rodman a free run at Puntigam every time she got the ball, which was a lot. Alonso's inability and/or unwillingness to adapt to both his own and the opposition's personnel is concerning to say the least: Houston was thoroughly dominated after their early opener, looking like a team totally out of sync with its manager's philosophy, and hardly getting a sniff at the Spirit goal in the second half.
Quick Hits:
Bethune has been excellent for the Spirit, replacing much of what Ashley Sanchez provided with a little added verve on the side.
A slightly more unexpected rookie surprise (though she was drafted fifth overall) has been Hershfelt, who has looked instantly comfortable partnering Sullivan in the Spirit's double pivot. Hershfelt has a certain natural glide to her- She's effortlessly smooth and covers much more ground that you would expect, badly needed given Sullivan's lack of mobility. It's looking like a home run of a pair of first round picks early on for Washington.
Sanchez's trade request apparently came prior to last week's victory over Bay FC, but it puts the Dash in the extremely unenviable position of not only losing their best player, but being on a timeline. Will the Dash FO acquiesce to Sanchez's trade request before Friday, or will they hold on until the international transfer windows open in the summer?
Jane Campbell remains awesome, folks. Houston's inability to defend is rough, but it allows us to witness some of the finest 1v1 goalkeeping in the league.
Game 2: Gotham FC 1-1 Kansas City Current
In what was, on paper, one of the most intriguing NWSL matchups of the weekend, the red hot Kansas City Current traveled to West New York (re: Jersey) to take on Gotham in the home opener for the defending champs. Kansas City's transition speed against Gotham's methodical keep-ball. Temwa Chawinga against Gotham's pace-negative backline. Gotham's inability to field their best eleven against themselves.
Gotham has been consistently gentle with their U.S internationals post-break for the most part, and left Jenna Nighswonger, Lynn Williams, and Crystal Dunn on the bench. The interesting part of this decision is that of the three, only Dunn played real minutes over the break, and Williams wasn't even on the roster. Williams' absence from the starting 11 can be explained away by the leg injury she's been dealing with for the past month or so, but the Nighswonger and Dunn absences are much more confusing, especially given the fact that CB Tierna Davidson, who played 180 Shebaleaves minutes for the United States over the past week, started at left back against the Current.
Amoros is an excellent manager, but is occasionally prone to outsmarting himself. Davidson's inclusion at LB over Nighswonger --presumably to provide a more physical, veteran presence to combat the 5-alarm fire that is Temwa Chawinga-- may have seemed logical to Amoros, but was a truly horrendous decision in hindsight. Neither Davidson or Nighswonger have the requisite pace to keep up with Chawinga (no-one does, really), but Davidson's lack of familiarity with the left back position was apparent throughout a first half that Kansas City had the best of. Gotham played their usual high line against KC, despite Chawinga's pace, a tactic Amoros has been consistent with since showing up in New York- He doesn't care who the opposition has in their front line; that high line will be in place no matter what. To Gotham's credit, they're well-drilled enough that they don't get burned often, but it's painfully obvious when they do.
If you wanted to show a friend unfamiliar with the new-look Current what KC's formidable attacking duo are all about, KC's first goal is about as perfect a distillation of their respective skillsets as you could hope to find. Bia starts the Current counter by absolutely rocking Esther Gonzalez off the ball in the KC half, driving forward with the ball, and then playing an inch-perfect pass into the feet of an on-rushing Chawinga. Chawinga's pace in this clip is just nonsensical. It's ridiculous. There's fast and there's Chawinga-go-vroom fast. It looks like Maitane Lopez, Davidson, Nealy Martin, and Sam Hiatt are running in slow motion. There's absolutely nothing you can do with this. If Chawinga was all vertical speed, there might be something opposing defenses might do.....but she also happens to be an elite finisher. Gimme the odds on Chawinga winning the MVP right quick, because she is WELL on her way
Gotham were fortunate to only concede once in the first half, but did offer a relatively consistent threat going forward. Amoros moved off off of his usual 4-3-3 and played Emily Sonnett and Martin in a double pivot, possibly looking to limit Vanessa Dibernardo and Bia's opportunities to drop in and link play together for KC. Offensively, Amoros did what he usually does: Identify the oppositions weakest FB and target her relentlessly. I mean, look at Esther, Stengel, and Ryan's average positions on the pass map. Poor Izzy Rodriguez. Lmao, even.
Amoros' choice of target does offer some respect to rookie KC RB Ellie Wheeler, who, while typically chaos personified, was a much more calm and collected version of herself this week than she had been through the first three. Wheeler has made the RB spot her own over the opening sixth of the NWSL season, combining her relentless aggression with a developing partnership with Chawinga.
In the KC midfield, Bayley Feist took the place of Lo Labonta, who showed up on the KC injury report and didn't make the 18. KC is never going to be a "play the ball through the midfield" team and even less so against a team like Gotham, but the drop-off from the first 30 minutes to the rest of the match was yet again concerning if you're KC manager Vlatko Andonovski. Part of the reason KC's intensity has dropped off in the second halves of games is BECAUSE of the intensity with which they start matches- It's simply impossible to maintain the level of pressing and aggression the Current play with for 90 minutes. Another reason is down to game state: The Current have taken an early first half lead in every match they've played in 2024. But the last reason is very Vlatko: They retreat into a shell once they get the lead, and their defense isn't good enough to hold it.
Amoros corrected his initial mistake by bringing Dunn on for Hiatt at half time and shifting Davidson back into her preferred CB role. An early header from Esther from a Gotham corner leveled the match at one, and Gotham controlled the match throughout the second half. They did not, however, create many big chances, as KC's defense held (mostly) strong and the game ended 1-1. Gotham's usually relentless attack was neutered slightly by the switch away from the 4-3-3 and the inclusion of two holding midfielders. Gotham will be fine long-term, but this hasn't exactly been the dominant start many expected.
Quick Hits:
Gotham's attacking limitations are mostly down to the Midge Purce and Lynn Williams injuries. Williams' return to fitness will help, but the loss of Purce's dynamism has been a real issue- They have very little in the way of game-wrecking pace, and it's hard to be dominant in the NWSL without that option in behind.
As a card-carrying member of the Delanie Sheehan hive, she's much better as an attacking eight in the 4-3-3 than as a lone ten in a double pivot. I won't be surprised if the ultimate version of this Gotham team has Sonnett playing in the single pivot with Martin on the bench.
Vanessa Dibernardo, man. I discussed how rejuvenated she looks in last week's recap, and she once again had an excellent first half. Playing off the back of Bia has done wonders for her.
This was one of KC CB Gabby Robinson's best games as a pro. I've long been a skeptic of Robinson's (or, as I like to call her, young Kelli Hubly), but she did an excellent job keeping Gotham at bay in the second half.
It's possible that Amoros just doesn't see Dunn as a starter at this point in her career. Sheehan has certainly has been the better player over the past year and has earned her spot, but it's something to keep an eye on. When Dunn has played for Gotham, it's either been on the wing or at left back.
Rose Lavelle is just never gonna be healthy, and I for one, am sick of it. I'm also sick of hearing what Gotham will look like when they have her back. WILL she be back? Are we SURE?
Chawinga leads the NWSL in Goals added (G+)., which is usually a pretty reliable metric for where a player falls in the MVP discussion. Just sayin!
Game 3: North Carolina Courage 2-0 Portland Thorns
If, on Saturday morning, I could have physically designed a prediction for how this game would go based on everything I know about how these two teams play and are coached, it would have looked pretty damn similar to what transpired at 4:00 PM in Cary North Carolina.
The Courage are the NWSL's most consistent-but-deadly package in that you know exactly what they are going to try to do and how they are going to do it, but their level of execution and belief in their system makes it near impossible to stop. The Thorns are......well....hmmm.....I guess you know WHAT they are going to do, but the "why" and "how" and "what is Mike Norris doing (more on that later)" of it all remains distinctly murky.
The Courage came out in their usual flat 4-3-3, with the lineup graphic showing Manaka Matsakubo taking her turn as the false nine in place of Briana Pinto. Except.....she didn't actually play there. In reality, it was Ashley Sanchez who finally took her turn as the furthest Courage player up the field, with Manaka taking Sanchez's usual spot as the highest eight in the Courage midfield three. This was the Courage eleven that I thought we would see most weeks in the preseason, before Courage coach Sean Nahas began the surprise Pinto-at-the-nine experiment we've seen through three of the first four Courage matches.
The Courage were actually relatively impotent against the Thorns, their achilles heel of a front line offering very little to trouble the Thorns defense. Some of this was game state: Tyler Lussi's excellent half volley from a Sanchez corner gave the Courage avery early lead, the Courage didn't feel the need to press, and the Thorns' midfield inadequacies were on full display for the remainder of the match.
The Courage had no problems playing through the disjointed Thorns press, electing to send both Narumi Miura and Denise O'Sullivan back to support CBs Malia Berkley and Kaleigh Kurtz in possession. The OBV values for the entire Courage team are relatively low, as shown in the graphic above This is because, well, the Courage didn't have to go forward. They passed through, around, between, and over the Thorns midfield, rarely leaving the middle third of the field. It was a masterclass in how to kill off a game after taking the lead- The Courage midfield three was as telepathic and locked in as ever effortlessly playing keep ball with poor Sam Coffey chasing ghosts for most of the match.
For the Thorns, this was a predictable new low --and ultimately, the final nail in the coffin--of the Mike Norris era. Even with Hina Sugita inserted into the Thorns midfield three, Norris' 4-3-3 were as disconnected as ever, with Olivia Moultrie and Hina pushed characteristically high throughout the first half, leaving Sam Coffey responsible for tracking all three of the Courage's midfield runners. Moultrie in particular was extremely poor going forward for the Thorns, consistently taking far too much time on the ball and running into dead-ends in the form of the compact Courage midfield three. More importantly, Moultrie's lack of defensive instincts consistently left Coffey on an island Jon-Snow-in-battle-of-the-bastards style, the teenager failing to track the barrage of Courage runners into the Thorns' attacking third time after time.
Moultrie's defensive failures are not all her fault. Norris's insistence on the rigid 4-3-3 forces Moultrie into the eight roll that her skillset simply does not match. The eight in a 4-3-3 requires defensive discipline and the type of positional awareness the 18 year old simply does not possess at this point in her career. Moultrie is a true 10: She wants to pick up the ball in midfield and look to combine or get a look on goal. She also lacks quickness and vertical speed, making it challenging for her to recover and take up the required defensive positions. Norris' clear directive --I say clear because it shows up on tape every week-- for his two eights to stay high on the shoulder of his forwards, puts Coffey, already an athletically limited six, in the worst of positions week after week. In other words, everything Norris has done with his midfield tactically has reeked of incompetence and a failure to understand where and how his exceptionally talented group of players thrive.
The lack of connectivity in the Thorns midfield stood in stark contrast to the fluidity and discipline of that of their opponents. The Courage and the Thorns play, in essence, the same formation with similar personnel: A single pivot 4-3-3 with an athletically limited, but very skilled trio, and a set of fullbacks that like generally like to invert. The Courage, however, are perfectly drilled: They play a sort of "you go/I go" style, where the midfield three communicate and can trade positions with ease. There are times where Miura is the deepest of the three (generally when the Courage are playing keep ball in their own half as they did for much of Saturday), but there are also times when Denise O'Sullivan will be the deepest of the three, and --get this-- even Manaka found herself tucking in between the two CBs to help the Courage build out from the back on occasion.
The Thorns, on the other hand, are seemingly not allowed to cross into the zone of another midfielder. The two eights in particular rarely even seem to notice the other is on the field, an anecdotal statement borne out by the pass map below. Even Hina Sugita, a supreme connector, failed to complete enough passes between herself and fellow eight Moultrie to even register on the pass map graphic. That's simply unacceptable! Only Norris knows if this is by design, or if simply a function of the elevated roles he asks his two eights to play. Regardless, the Thorns have not only failed to connect through the midfield, they're failing to bring in their front three as well. Despite the high positions the two eights are taking up, Morgan Weaver, Sophia Smith, and Janine Beckie hardly saw any of the ball, and even more rarely exchanged it between the three of them. This was a disconcerting performance for Portland for many reasons, but for me, the main issue was the lack of offensive output. Other than a few poor Courage mistakes, the Thorns failed to generate any chances of their own, finishing with a staggeringly low 0.35 xG on the night.
Quick Hits:
The Courage did turn the ball over twice in extremely dangerous areas playing out of the back, and should have been punished. If Morgan Weaver finishes her chance early in the first half, the game may have looked slightly different.
The Thorns announced a "restructuring" after the game, firing (promoting?) Norris and announcing a "worldwide" search for a new manager. About time!
The Thorns have been undeniably bad, but they've also been exceptionally unlucky. They have roughly the same expected points as league leaders KC, and by FAR the worst xPts differential in the league. The defense has looked much more solid with Isabella Obaze in place of Kelli Hubly. Hopefully she continues to get that spot.
Game 4: Utah Royals 0-1 Orlando Pride
Don't say I didn't warn y'all. The Orlando Pride are legit.
Well, I might be getting a little over my skis on this one wanting my preseason prediction of top-four Orlando to come true. Whatever. I don't care. The Pride ARE legit, though, I promise: Undefeated through four games, Seb Hines' side refused to join Racing Louisville in drawing their first four matches of the season, finally getting over the hump, defeating the admittedly hapless Utah Royals on the road courtesy of a late Marta goal. The Pride have withstood a rash of absences in key positions over the first four games of the season, shifting midfielders into defense to account for illness and injury to former Arsenal defender Rafaelle, and 2023 top three pick Emily Sams.
Orlando has been bolstered by the somewhat startling (but welcome!) return to form of Marta, who, through four matches, has played like she found a youth potion at the bottom of a central Florida swamp. The Brazilian didn't start against Utah -- that honor went to the very deserving Summer Yates-- but came on with 30 minutes to go and immediately changed what had been a rather putrid Orlando attack through 60 minutes, scoring the game winner just eight minutes after coming on. Marta hasn't just been picking her spots- She is the fulcrum of everything Orlando does, flitting in between holding midfielders Morgan Gautrat and Angelina --both of whom have done an admirable job defensively, but have offered relatively little going forwards-- and creating next to Adriana. Admittedly, Orlando hasn't done a lot in attack: Their pass maps through four matches consistently look like the graphic below: An isolated front three in front of a compact midfield.
Fortunately for the Pride, the solution to some of their attacking woes just stepped off a plane in Orlando this week. Striker Barbra Banda, the other half of the NWSL's newest Zambian duo, will step into Orlando's number nine role in front of Marta, an immediate upgrade over Ally Watt who has been forced to play a more central role after Messiah Bright's late-offseason departure for Angel City. It's exciting times for Orlando, who have made it through the portion of their season where they lacked a rostered striker undefeated, and will add the prolific Zambian to what is shaping up to be a fearsome attack.
For Utah, the less said the better. They are more or less what I thought they would be this season: A hard working but utterly impotent squad that will be exceedingly happy if they manage to avoid claiming the wooden spoon at the end of the season. Their xG chart (below) for Saturday's match is one of the single ickiest things I've ever seen in my life. We did finally see their young-lion front line of Ally Sentnor, Brecken Mozingo, and Hannah Betfort with Captain Paige Monaghan sliding into central midfield to take the place of Frankie Tagliaferri, but the results simply aren't there yet. Utah's midfield three lacks a true creator: Tagliaferri is ostensibly the most versatile, creative Royal on the field, but she is yet to cash in on the potential she showed as a highly rated college player at both Penn State and Rutgers. Mozingo's first start of her rookie season was not one she'll want to remember, struggling to get on the ball throughout as she was consistently isolated deep on the RW. Even Sentnor, who has had an otherwise very impressive start to her rookie season saw very little of the ball, with Orlando's FBs staying tight and shutting off any distribution from midfield.
In a way, it's almost refreshing to see an expansion side struggle. Natural order restored, etc etc. It's how it should be! It should take time to build a roster from scratch. Sadly for Royals fans, it's rearlly the Utah of it all that is their barrier to true success- Rodriguez will have to coach her ass off and Utah will have to be aces in the college draft, because the top end talent ain't coming to Sandy any time soon.
Quick Hits:
Kate Del Fava! Nice player!
Utah has, at least, identified that they have an attacking midfield issue, bringing in 21 year old New Zealand international midfielder Macey Fraser on a 3+1 deal in midweek.
I'll be curious to see more of Mozingo if Fraser pans out- She and Sentnor are, on paper, a duo built for the transition of the NWSL. If Utah have found a creator, things might open up for the rookie winger duo.
Hines remains a supremely underrated coach. Orlando is second only to the Courage in tactical discipline- They rarely lose their shape, recognize their weak spots, and understand how to get the ball to their best players. If Banda hits, watch out.
Emily Sams has taken a clear Sophomore leap. She's been a real vocal leader in a decimated Orlando backline and looks like she'll be a real top-level NWSL CB with some fringe USWNT potential.
Player of the week: Trinity Rodman, Washington Spirit
Goal of the week: This back-to-front beaut for the Spirit that probably had Jonatan Giraldez drooling all the way from Barcelona: