NWSL Week 12 Recap- SD crunch Houston, KC roll Louisville, and Portland stay unbeaten at home

1. The Wave shape shift in Houston

   San Diego manager Jonas Eidevall made a subtle switch in shape against Houston's back 3 on Friday night, moving from the Wave's traditional Kenza Dali-Savannah McKaskill double pivot to a 4-3-3 with Dali and Gia Corley higher up the field as dual eights. Here's a side by side of what it looked like, first in live action and then on the average position map post game:

   

   

   via @NWSLstat on BlueSky

   Eidevall's switch made sense for a few reasons, the main one being that Houston's back-3 shape and midfield two presented the Wave with opportunities to find all kinds of gaps in between the Dash back three and their midfield two. Houston was so open that Dali (the "RDM" dot (!) on the graphic above) was really more of a ten for much of the game, operating just inside of compatriot Delphine Cascarino in the spaces Corley typically takes up.

   
   

   Dali --who has been, for me, the NWSL's best midfielder in 2025-- was absolutely everywhere on Friday night, whether she was picking up the ball deep or receiving passes further forward. San Diego let Savannah McKaskill sit deep in the hole and distribute against Houston's overwhelmed midfield while Dali spent much of the game torturing Houston's left side in tandem with Cascarino. Here she is picking the ball high up the field in the Corley spot before combining with Cascarino in the Houston box.

   Eidevall's been really good at making these sorts of small, proactive tweaks this season and, despite a nervy second half punctuated by two excellent Dash goals, San Diego were mostly comfortable throughout their 3-2 victory.

2. A note on Maria Sanchez

   The Wave winger is widely rumored to be moving to Tigres in the summer window, but came off the bench --and scored!-- for the Wave against Houston. Sanchez has been good this year with a little of the creative burden taken off her with the additions of Cascarino, Corley, and Merroni, but it will be interesting to see if the Wave add to their left side, or put the weight of a shield race fully on the duo of Kimmi Ascanio (who started on the left wing Friday) and Mel Barcenas (who I would like to see more of but has been used mainly as a supersub) should Sanchez complete her move back to Mexico.

   
   

3. Houston's structure issues

   I want to give a little grace to the Dash because it feels like they're consistently compensating for roster holes. Yaz Ryan is now playing in the nine because Diana Ordonez is gone and Messiah Bright has been mostly ineffective, Maggie Graham was forced to wingback to cover for the absence of Avery Patterson. The Dash still have talent issues across their back three, and, while she's done her job admirably at times this season, Dani Colaprico should probably not be relied on as a primary six at this point in her career.

   
   

   Mostly, however, it was supremely disappointing to see how effortlessly San Diego carved through Houston's lines. San Diego runs most of their action down the right side anyhow --that is, after all, where Cascarino plays-- but the adjustment to move Dali right and into the 10 showed everyone exactly what part of the Houston defense the Wave wanted to target.

   
   

   Cascarino is nearly impossible to mark consistently regardless of shape, but Houston's Friday was practically begging San Diego to force the ball to their best attacker all night long. Ryan Gareis, Houston's LWB, was either being told to stay high or not tracking- Cascarino was isolated on poor Paige Nielsen throughout, finding wide open space in the seam between Houston's midfield duo and their back three. When the ball was on the Wave right, Houston's back three were frequently far too narrow. Here's a screenshot taken just after Gia Corley turned effortlessly through the midfield. All three Dash CBs are pushed right, Gareis is caught high, and Cascarino has the freedom of the stadium. Corley slightly overhits the pass, but this ain't gonna cut it if you're Houston.

   

   Here's another clip of Cascarino finding space. Note that this isn't in transition, it comes from the Wave's steady state build with the Dash, at least theoretically, back in structure. Gareis is in Narnia, Dash midfielder Delanie Sheehan is picking up Dali in SD's adjusted 4-3-3, and Cascarino is in acres of space with Nielsen 1v1.

   A version of this sequence happened numerous times over the course of the match, particularly in the first half when SD were pushing forward. These kind of blatant structural integrity issues are pretty unacceptable regardless of who you are, and when they do happen, they have to be fixed with in-game adjustments. I'd like to be able to blame Gareis for not tracking, but it happened SO many times that I can only assume this was how Houston manager Fabrice Gautrat wanted his team to set up and defend/

   
   

   As I've stated a few times this year, we're still early in the Houston rebuild and a lot will depend on whether the Dash's new LA-flavored front office has the juice to bring some talent in. Gonna be an interesting next few transfer windows in Houston.

   
   

4. Orlando flatter to deceive once again

   Orlando's scuffling 1-0 victory in San Jose put a nice emphasis on last week's note on their unconvincing play of late. Bay, who have not been putting many teams under pressure at any point in 2025, were the better team early and late, with only some poor finishing and a stout Orlando back line keeping the scoreline intact.

   
   

   Orlando continue to struggle to do the things they were so good at last season: The early high pressure that overran teams early so frequently in their double winning campaign is mostly gone. They don't have the same accordion-like midfield structure as they did in 2024. Most interestingly, they're seeing FAR more of the ball in 2025 (55% compared to 50%) than they did last season, signaling that they're not getting out to the same sorts of unassailable positions they were in 2024.

   
   

   One of the most interesting metrics is that Orlando is, once again, on pace to outperform their expected goals allowed (xGA) by a substantial margin. In 2024, Orlando allowed 8.5 goals below expectation, and in 2025 they are already 3.5 goals better than expected. Orlando has conceded a remarkable EIGHT goals from 12 matches so far, two goals fewer than the Current, who have the second best goals against record in the league at 10. At some point, over-performance becomes normal, and we're nearing a large enough sample size that it's fair to question whether the xGA over-performance is a function of their defense instead of a statistical anomaly. Orlando are the only non-KC team in the league to have never conceded more than 1.7 xGA in a single match. The Pride simply do not concede good chances en masse.

   
   

   In an NWSL where teams are notoriously inconsistent, that kind of defensive over-performance is generally going to be good enough to keep you high up in the table, especially if you can maintain a top five offense as the Pride have done. I, however, am paying attention: This is not the pass map of an elite team:

   

   
   

5. Utah: I'm out

   Sorry Royals fans. I'm out. I tried for a long time. At some point, however, I can't keep ignoring the results or the stats....and both are terrible. Let's take a look under the hood:

   
   

   - Goals scored: 10 (T-last)

   - xG: 9.8 (last)

   - npxG: 9.1 (last)

   - Goals conceded: 25 (13th of 14)

   - xGA: 25.9: (last)

   
   

   Let's focus on that last stat. Utah has conceded 25.9 xGA in less than HALF A DAMN SEASON. That's a nearly identical pace to last season's horrendous 52 xGA season. Even worse? Utah's 25.9 xGA is is 27% more than the NEXT WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. Yes, that's right: 13th placed Washington is at 19.8 xGA on the season, having played the same number of games.

   
   

   Is there the potential for the Royals to go on a another second half run? Sure. Right now, however? This team STINKS, and I'm tired of defending them!

   
   

6. Louisville fail the KC test

   Louisville didn't really change anything on the road in KC. They pressed high, left space in behind, and hoped they won the ball more times than they didn't. The bad news? There is NOTHING the Current like to see more than a team pressing them high.

   
   

   But that's what Louisville do, they did it, and they paid for it. Thirty seconds in, bang: Michelle Cooper is through:

   Three minutes on the clock with KC already a goal up: Cooper is just a touch offside from a ball in behind.

   14 minutes in: Louisville with nine players in their attacking third, Cooper with the freedom of the pitch in behind for 2-0 and game over:

   I'm not super interested in hammering Bev Yanez despite the extremely predictable outcome of pressing the Current high. KC are a juggernaut, and sitting back into shape probably wouldn't have helped things in the long run. Louisville did manage to claw back to 3-2 in the second half with the Current sitting back before Chawinga put the nail in the coffin in stoppage time and probably weren't as bad as the initial 3-0 scoreline might have suggested, but this might be some good teaching tape for Yanez after Louisville's recent hot run.

   
   

   The good/bad news for those wanting to see how real Louisville's recent form has been? The Kentucky side has Orlando twice, KC again, and San Diego in the next four. Predictions on where they'll be in the table in a month?

   
   

7. Ludmila (again)

   It's worth noting that Chicago's Brazilian forward would be in some legit MVP discussions if she played for a better team. She carried the ball about 150 combined yards in two minutes to put Chicago up 2-0, albeit a lead they'd summarily blow in true Chicago soccer fashion in the last 10 minutes of the match. That body feint in her own half on the first goal is nasty stuff. I won't do the #freeLudmila thing because even fans of bad teams deserve a little fun in their lives, but let us, at least, give her all the flowers.

8. North Carolina's shape + a lineup conundrum

   A little over a month into North Carolina's shape change, and the results have mostly been good. North Carolina's tactical shift has resulted in an undeniably more potent offense: the Courage have generated 1.85 goals and 1.8 xG per 90 since the change compared to the 0.6 and 1.14 in the five games prior. Defensively, it hasn't been great regardless of shape, the Courage ranking fourth from bottom in xGA.

   
   

   Perhaps more interestingly, however, has been North Carolina's structure in their new shape. The Courage have played a relatively unique 3-4-2-1 that floats between a 3-1-5-1 and a 3-4-2-1 in attacking sequences. Here's what it looked like against Angel City's block on Saturday night:

   

   Yes, that's left wing back Tyler Lussi up top next to nine Cortnee Vine. Shinomi Koyama, who plays ostensibly as a double ten next to Manaka Matsakubo, has pulled wide. Most interestingly, however, is where the Courage have their midfielders playing. Riley Jackson, who has traditionally been more of an attacking midfielder, has been occupying the deepest lying midfielder role for North Carolina with Denise O'Sullivan and Shinomi pushed higher almost as dual eights. Here's a clip of the build in action five minutes later, Jackson picking up the ball deep from her center back and playing a line breaker to O'Sullivan, who starts the attack.

   O'Sullivan has always been prone to making the occasional dash forward and has rarely operated as a lone six under Nahas, but her average position has gotten higher as a result of North Carolina's shape change, while Jackson's has gotten deeper as the teen gets more minutes.

   
   

   The other knock on effect of North Carolina's shape change is the 20 year old Manaka's clear star turn. Playing just about exactly where she thrives --underneath the striker with the freedom to go pretty much whenever-- the Japanese international has firmly established herself as the most valuable of North Carolina's fleet of attacking midfielders. There is no better player in the league than Manaka on the half turn: She's shifty and has the combination of a low center of gravity and silky smooth touch that makes her exceptionally tough to deal with when she receives the ball in pockets. The presence of North Carolina's marauding wing backs has opened up a little more space in the midfield, and she's taken full advantage. Here are a few clips from the first half of the Courage's tilt against Angel City:

   That second turn-into-roulette combo? Filthy stuff.

   
   

   Another interesting subplot of the shape change and Manaka's emergence? Where does Jaedyn Shaw fit into the team? She's not going to play consistently ahead of Manaka or Ashley Sanchez (or Shinomi Koyama, who has established a really nice chemistry with her compatriot as of late), so it is --most likely-- going to have to be at the nine if at all. Hardly the start to her Courage career that she would have imagined.

   
   

   (Oh, and since I don't have something on ACFC today, good on the their fans for the anti-ICE chants!)

   
   

9. An ode to a soccer Sunday in Portland

   Lemme tell y'all: I'm a in a good mood. There's nothing quite like my 20 minute walk across NW Portland to Providence Park, a pre-game noon beer at Civic Taproom while random late 2000s pop hits blare louder than they need to, before sitting with nearly 22K on a 75 degree Sunday afternoon on Pride day to watch the Thorns beat a capital G good team to remain unbeaten at home. Sometimes, the soccer is good.....and there's nothing quite like it when it's good in Portland. Urban stadiums are the best, and there are none better than Providence Park in the summer.

   
   

   On the field, the Thorns put in arguably their most complete ninety minute performance of the season, shutting out the Spirit 2-0 behind goals from nines Reilyn Turner and Pietra Tordin. The much-maligned-on-the-pages-of-this-website Rob Gale finally put out a relatively balanced team, the Thorns pressed the Spirit high early, and Portland's midfield trio of Sam Coffey, Hina Sugita, and Jessie Fleming were clicking. Portland could --and probably should-- have been up by more than the 1-0 advantage they took into half time, but, for once, the Thorns did not wait until the second half to click into gear and were rewarded for it.

   
   

   Fleming in particular was excellent, assisting on both Thorns goals, but was also relentless in her pressure of Washington's midfield. RB Kaitlyn Torpey, who has been on the struggle bus for most of the season, put in a solid performance against the very dangerous Rose Kouassi, while CBs Isabella Obaze and Sam Hiatt dealt with Washington's Gift Monday well in the absence of Ashley Hatch.

   
   

   When the precocious and effortlessly smooth Tordin dinked Spirit keeper Aubrey Kingsbury from 25 yards with ten minutes remaining, the win was sealed and all that was left was for Bella Bixby's daughter to parade around the perimeter of the Providence Park turf in a bucket hat. A good day.

   
   

   (Very much worth mentioning, however, that the second half of Portland's rookie attacking duo (Caiya Hanks) may well have done her knee at the end of the first half. We probably won't have an update by the time this piece is posted, but let's hope it wasn't what we all thought it was)

10. A very tepid Washington display

    The Spirit, on the other hand, put in one of their weakest displays of the season. Missing Ashley Hatch, the Washington looked like they had been lulled asleep by the beautiful Portland weather, failing to register a single touch in Portland's half until about ten minutes had passed and struggling to generated much against Portland's defense.

    
    

    Washington are still quite injured --today, it was Ashley Hatch who was added to the Spirit's injury report, before Casey Krueger was forced off at halftime-- but they do have both Hal Hershfelt and Croix Bethune back in the eleven. Both are, understandably, still getting up to full speed, but Washington were completely overwhelmed in midfield, coming second in nearly every challenge and failing to get the ball to the feet of last season's ROTY. Bethune had only 28 total touches over the course of her sixty minutes, with only two of her 18 passes entering the final third. Washington had the juiciest of juicy matchups on their left side with Rose Kouassi against Torpey, but generally failed to find the Ivorian in space.

    
    

    My guess is that this was just One of Those Games (Washington has NOT been good in Portland historically), but Krueger's injury, which forced a shape change back to a back three for the entire second half after Rebecca Bernal replaced the FB-- is not encouraging for a team that continues to deal with injuries to FBs and, much more concerningly for a team with shield aspirations, continues to own the NWSL's second worst defense by xGA.

    
    

    Goal of the week: I'd love to give it to Ludmila, but I'm a sucker for a team goal, so congrats Cortnee Vine: