xG/pass maps via Andre Carlisle's newsletter: https://btvc.beehiiv.com/p/nwsl-week-5-xg-race-charts-pass-networks
All other graphics from @NWSLstat on Twitter, except where specified.
Game 1: Orlando Pride 1-0 San Diego Wave
The nature of the NWSL is that at any given moment, somewhere between 50 and 75% of fans in the league will be downright miserable. There is simply so much talent in the still relatively nascent league that fans of most teams feel that their teams should be higher in the league table than they are. Coaching instability and year to year randomness only adds to the NWSL's chaos, making the league's pecking order supremely difficult to predict. Your star striker pulls a hammy? Whoops, you're going to fall five spots in two weeks. You hit on a big offseason signing or coaching hire? Congrats, you are now a contender.
The San Diego Wave are Exhibit A for how even the most stable teams are susceptible to NWSL variance. The Wave's perceived high floor was mostly down to manager Casey Stoney's cavewoman structure, where the Wave relied on a sturdy backline, compact midfield, and top-end keeper to frustrate their opposition long enough for either Jaedyn Shaw or Alex Morgan to pull something out of a hat. Through the first two years of Stoney's tenure, it has mostly worked: The Wave made the league semi-final as an expansion side and won the Shield in their sophomore campaign. This year, however, has not started smoothly for San Diego.
The Wave currently sit on four points from four games, good for 10th place in the league table. They sit 10th in the per game xG table was well, their 0.97 xG/game putting them above only above dumpster fires Houston and Utah, and the rebuilding Chicago Red Stars. Their defensive foundation remains sound, but any failure to outperform their xG puts them at risk of missing the playoffs with the improvement of 2023 non-factors Chicago, Washington, Orlando, and Kansas City. The Wave have played a match fewer than the rest of the league due to the Challenge Cup and have plenty of time to right the ship, but the issues are clear and worrisome.
The Wave's issues have never been MORE clear and starkly worrisome than they were during Friday night's trip to Orlando to face the suddenly fearsome Pride. The Wave's shape has always been conservative- It's what allows Stoneyball to work as intended. The double pivot of Danielle Colaprico and Emily Van Egmond are going to sit right in front of the two CBs and contribute little to the attack, letting the attacking midfield and wingers carry the load on the counter. Looking at the pass map graphic below, the first thing you probably notice is where Jaedyn Shaw's average position is. I am legitimately unsure what the Wave's intended shape was. Shaw spent far too much of her time in her own half, Orlando's well-structure press effectively caving in the Wave's front three. Before she left with a somewhat gruesome-looking ankle injury late in the second half, Alex Morgan was so isolated that she didn't receive enough passes to even register in Statsbomb's tracking data. Savannah McKaskill looked like the only Wave player remotely interested in putting pressure on Orlando's backline, as the Wave sunk deeper and deeper into a hole that they were ultimately lucky to finish only one goal deep. They finally got out of their own half at times over the course of the second half, but their first half location map (shown below right) is simply horrendous.
The Pride, meanwhile, played one of the most dominant halves of soccer of any NWSL side this season over the course of the first 45 minutes, exhibiting a cohesive and relentless press that saw them take 12 shots while limiting San Diego to just one of their own. I should mention that the Pride started the match without 2023 MVP candidate Adriana, new signing Barbra Banda, CM stalwart Morgan Gautrat, and CB Rafaelle, who finally made the bench for the first time in 2024. The Pride were ostensibly playing a 4-2-3-1, Angelina and Haley McCutcheon in the double pivot, Marta at the 10, and Ally Watt inside of Summer Yates and Julie Doyle. In practice, however, the Pride were so dominant that it felt much more like a 4-3-3 in attack, Angelina frequently stepping high to win the ball whenever the Wave tried to get out of their own half.
The Pride locked in the Wave with a version of a 2-3 press, Angelina joining Marta in cutting off midfield options while Yates and Doyle tormented SD FBs Kristen McNabb and Hanna Lunkvist. San Diego sat so deep that they had no options once Colaprico or Van Egmond got on the ball, allowing Orlando to shift their line of confrontation up to near midfield. While Watt was playing as Orlando's striker, her talents are really best-suited as a winger. Hines repeatedly sent Watt and Doyle to the Wave left, pressuring poor McNabb so often that she continuously sent hopeless ball after hopeless ball straight to the feet of the waiting Angelina and McCutcheon. Doyle and Watt went straight at McNabb in possession as well, toasting her so many times that Girma began to cheat over in anticipation of the inevitability of McNabb getting beaten.
Offensively, the Pride gave 2nd year pro Summer Yates a surprise --but fully deserved-- start over Adriana, playing the UW product as an inverted left winger instead of her usual more central role. Yates, Marta, and striker Ally Watt rotated so frequently that it was often hard to determine where on the front line each player was meant to be. Yates, who has come out of nowhere to cement herself as one of the better young players in all of the NWSL, was nothing short of magnificent against San Diego, torturing Lunkvist in possession, leading the press on the Orlando left, and creating chance after chance for herself and her teammates before scoring the only goal of the match in the 26th minute. Yates is a bowling ball of knives; a relentless runner who uses her low center of gravity to weave through and around defenders. She is also clearly benefiting from sharing a pitch with Marta, with whom she has developed a seamless chemistry. I picked Orlando to be a contender (no, I will not stop mentioning it, thanks for asking), mostly due to my faith in coach Seb Hines, but worried about the Pride's creativity with Marta thought to be on the downswing and not much around her. Well, Marta does not look to be on the downswing so far, and Yates' emergence, combined with Adriana and the newly signed Banda give the Pride a suddenly fearsome-looking front four.
Quick Hits:
Orlando holding midfielder Angelina has been given a new lease on life in Hines' system. She can be both calm in possession and a N'Golo Kante-like pressing engine as she was against SD and is extremely smart at reading and cutting off passing angles. Angelina was at the back of Orlando's press, generally stepping in front of Morgan, Sofia Jakobsson, or Shaw as the Wave tried and failed to build from deep.
Barbra Banda made her Pride debut in the second half, and accumulated almost nearly one xG in just under 30 minutes. This Pride attack is gonna be SCARY, folks.
The most troubling element if you're the Wave is the fact that their typically sturdy low block was not at all sturdy. They conceded 3.3 xG on the night, good for most in their young club's history.
No news yet on Morgan's ankle injury, but the Wave can hardly stand to lose her.
Stoney's substitutions continue to baffle. Needing a goal, she left both Amirah Ali and Elyse Bennett glued to the bench in favor of more conservative options Makenzy Doniak, Kyra Carusa, and 17 year old Kimmi Ascanio.
Pride CB Emily Sams --thought to be one of the best CB college prospects in a long time when drafted-- has quietly turned herself into a top five CB in the league and is certainly worthy of a post-Olympics national team call-up.
The mark of a well-coached team is when it feels like they are playing up a woman when watching. This is certainly true of the Courage, and has been for the Pride this season as well. Their two FBs --probably their weakest positional group-- are always given at least two options in possession. Even without Gautrat, the Pride double pivot dominated the Wave's midfield three in and out of possession.
Game 2: Portland Thorns 4-1 Houston Dash
A Week 4 thrashing at the hands of the North Carolina Courage left the 2024 Portland Thorns winless and in a tailspin. All was not rosy in the Rose City, and only Sophia Smith's recently extended contract offered the slightest glimpse of light in a season threatening to careen off the tracks. The Thorns, despite their talented roster, looked utterly toothless against the Courage, barely touching the ball and looking as though their midfielders had first met each other the night before, possibly while blackout drunk. The performance in Cary was, as it turned out, the last dance for beleaguered now-ex manager Mike Norris who lost his job-slash-was promoted as a result of the early season doldrums and was replaced by interim manager Rob Gale, his good friend and man who looks like he'd rather join Voldemort's army than coach a professional soccer team.
Fortunately for the Thorns, there is no better team to play when in need of a get-right game than the 2024 Houston Dash. The Dash --whose myriad on-field issues I chronicled in last week's recap-- had those on-field issues compounded by franchise pillar Maria Sanchez's trade request weeks before, leaving the Dash between a rock and a hard place: Either they waited to honor Sanchez's transfer request until the international transfer windows opened in the summer and held her hostage -- I use "hostage" very loosely given Sanchez did sign what was at the time the most expensive contract in NWSL history mere months ago-- or honor her request prior to Friday's deadline. The Dash, probably wisely, chose to get out of the Sanchez business before things got even uglier, selling her to San Diego for $500K of various types of NWSL funny money, leaving them to enter a nervous Providence Park without their only productive player.
Other than an early second half blip when Houston striker Diana Ordonez briefly halved what had been a 2-0 Thorns lead, Thorns fans needn't have worried. Houston manger Fran Alonso's dalliance with a series of 3-back formations continued to start the game, starting his three non-CB center backs Courtney Peterson, Sophie Schmidt, and Sarah Puntigam along his back line. With Sanchez's departure, Michelle Alozie -- a much more prototypical wingback-- got the call opposite rookie Avery Patterson on the Dash's right side, with Patterson shifting to the left.
The three-back only lasted about 20 minutes in Portland, as Portland's previously lifeless midfield easily played through the Dash's holding midfield duo of Elin Rubensson and Sophie Hirst while Sophia Smith tormented the Dash back three. Some of this was, as we will discuss, due to some smart shape adjustments by Thorns' interim Gale, but a lot of it was down to the Dash playing three forwards and only two midfielders. We noted last week how Diana Ordonez is playing virtually as a ten (more as a false nine, really, but semantics). You might look at the pass map below and say, "that looks like a midfield three to me,!" and you would be technically correct. The issue is that Ordonez isn't actually a midfielder, and doesn't have the positional sense or skillset to play as one. She's used to pressing CBs, not holding midfielders, and certainly not two holding midfielders as skilled as the Thorns' double pivot (!) of Sam Coffey and Hina Sugita.
Alonso, somewhat to his credit, ditched the back three for various versions of the four back, shifting Alozie further up the field as a winger. That was the only clearly observable change the Dash made, because they played about 10 different versions of a four back formation. Most frequently, it almost looked like a wide 4-2-2-2: Alozie shifted high up the field and played almost as a right forward, Barbra Olivieri dropped back into a pseudo-RB position, Peterson played in her favored LB spot, Amanda West dropped into the LM position, and Ordonez moved into her more favored striker spot. The Dash still built primarily out of a back three, but it looked messy and uncertain. Sophia Smith, who played much of the game on the Thorns' right side, combined with RB Marie Müller, midfielder Jessie Fleming, and Christine Sinclair to force West and Peterson back, limiting the Dash's attacking options. Without any pace besides Alozie to worry about, the Thorns were allowed to push higher and play comfortably through their back line and holding midfield. The Dash players unsurprisingly looked uncertain and unfamiliar with the shape, struggling to connect passes and maintain any real pressure on the Portland even after the Ordonez goal.
After showering praise on Norris and deflecting blame for the Thorns' poor start away from his close friend --including going so far as to say "the tactics are good" in his opening interview has manager-- Gale nevertheless immediately switched up the midfield shape, playing the double pivot most had clamored for with Hina Sugita partnering Sam Coffey at the base of Portland's midfield. The change in formation wasn't a complete shift away from the 4-3-3 preferred by Norris, but Gale clearly recognized the need to provide Coffey with a partner in the back half of the midfield. The switch to the double pivot and the decision to play Hina as an eight left Gale with an interesting choice: Would he bring Jessie Fleming, who had only played as an eight since arriving in Portland, higher up the field in the ten hole; or would he leave the big money signing on the bench in favor of Olivia Moultrie. He elected to go with Fleming, who responded by having her best game in a Thorns uniform, looking much closer to the player the world has watched grow for the better part of the last decade.
Norris' popular decision to switch up the midfield shape was combined with a slightly less popular one to return the 193 year old Christine Sinclair to the starting lineup for the first time since the KC (k)calamity. Sinclair's return meant that Sophia Smith was frequently shunted out to the right side. Interestingly, Smith and Sinclair virtually shared the number nine minutes evenly, smoothly rotating between the two depending on game state. Generally, Smith took up central positions when the Thorns were out of possession allowing her to lead the press, and moved wide to receive the ball in possession. Outside of her well-taken first goal, one of Sinclair's few remaining positive attributes is that Smith enjoys playing with her and the two have a clear connection on and off the field that allowed them to execute the frequent positional swaps and combine well for much of the first half. The Dash and their lack of speed are the perfect matchup to give Sinclair a rare start, but Thorns fans will hope Sinclair getting a start over Janine Beckie or rookie Payton Linnehan (MUCH more on her in a bit) is the exception, not the rule.
The primary beneficiary of the shape switch was Fleming, who functionally played as a ten in front of Hina and Coffey, and saw much more of the ball than in any of her first four matches in Portland. Fleming's position was still mostly on the right side of the Thorns attacking setup: The new-look 4-2-3-1 kept vestiges of the 4-3-3, Fleming playing right of center the most obvious of them. While the Thorns' formation is still a bit more of a hybrid 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 (a 4-3-3 in possession, a 4-2-3-1 out of possession is probably the best way to think about it) than a pure 4-2-3-1, it is also possible that Sinclair and Smith's rotation opened up space for Fleming to combine in that kept her mostly on the right side. Fleming is still very much not at her best, but the nature of her errors -- passes behind or in front of her teammates, mis-timed through balls, etc-- are generally indicators that she is still figuring out her new team, and I remain confident that she will be at her best sooner than later.
The game itself was mostly dominated by the Thorns, though both the early second half goal by Houston and a near-catastrophic error by the maybe soon-to-be-replaced GK Shelby Hogan caused some nervous moments for the Thorns crowd. It wasn't until Sophia Smith wove past multiple defenders and fed substitute Olivia Moultrie with ten minutes to go that Thorns fans could well and truly relax. By the time Janine Beckie picked off a ill-advised Houston pass at midfield and finished confidently in front of the north end for her first goal at Providence Park, the 17.5K inside the stadium had gotten loud. At least for a week, the Thorns had resumed normal service at home.
I'd be remiss, however, if I shunted the debut performance of Thorns rookie winger Payton Linnehan to the "quick hits" section of the game recap. Linnehan, who entered the match in the 70th minute for Morgan Weaver, was nothing less than a revelation: Within minutes of coming on, she showed an electric burst of pace before freeing up Reyna Reyes down the sideline on the overlap. Minutes later, she latched onto a Smith flick to square for Beckie whose shot was blocked. It was her quick thinking to take a quick throw-in that released Smith into position to eventually assist Moultrie on the clinching third goal, and she nearly got a debut goal after latching onto a Moultrie through ball. Linnehan's college tape was impressive, but it's always hard to tell how college performance will translate to the NWSL, especially for "older" prospects like Linnehan who spent five years in school. Her on-tape skillset painted the picture of a tricky winger with major burst and finishing ability, but not --to me-- one of elite straight-line speed. If her opening 30 minutes on Saturday are any indication, I may not have given her enough credit. The Thorns have long needed a true attacking threat off the bench, and if Linnehan's cameo turns out to be a sign of things to come, they may have unearthed a real gem, and possibly one that pushes for a starting spot. Plus, we'll get more of these adorable big sister Penn State reunion moments between Linnehan and fellow Nittany Lion Sam Coffey:
Quick Hits:
Houston quickly re-invested the Sanchez transfer money into their defense, playing nearly $600K for Brazilian 20 year old Tarciane, while also trading for former Angel City defender Paige Nielsen. Tarciane is mega-talented, but MAN. That's a lot of cash for a player who is completely unproven.
Morgan Weaver has been overly tentative for Portland this season. Part of this is that she and left back Reyna Reyes have not yet developed a true connection yet- Reyes is a better 1v1 defender than the deposed Meghan Klingenberg, but she doesn't have the technical ability and passing ability to combine that allowed Weaver and Klingenberg to form the partnership they had over the past three seasons. With that said, Weaver also just looks out of sorts: She frequently is failing to take advantage of space when she has it, instead playing early crosses into crowded boxes. Weaver will be fine, but she needs to get back to form quickly.
21 year old Danish CB Isabella Obaze started again for the Thorns, and seems to have quickly taken Kelli Hubly's spot next to Becky Sauerbrunn. Obaze is a better defender than Hubly, but her main additive quality to this Thorns backline is her composure. Sauerbrunn and Coffey very clearly trust her decision making on the ball already, giving her the ball in situations where Hubly has been consistently giving it back to the opposition immediately. If Obaze can continue what she showed against Houston against more formidable opposition, the Thorns may have found a good one.
Thorns RB Marie Müller barely got a mention from me in the game recap, but she was one of a few candidates for WOTM. Her technical ability was clear to anyone who watched her game tape in Germany, but there were concerns about how she'd adapt to the speed and physicality of the NWSL. The technical side has translated, and concerns about the physical side haven't yet been a major concern.
A lot of the Thorns' threat still comes from their FBs. Reyes had one of her better games, creating the most xT (expected threat) from passes of any Thorn, with Müller second.
This ain't a great look, Fran!
Game 3: Washington Spirit 2-0 Gotham
The rest of the league should probably watch out, because Michelle Kang's Washington Spirit project looks to be well ahead of schedule. We discussed last week how the Spirit have found a happy medium between Barcelona-esque pattern play and utilizing the many fantastic athletes on the roster to press opposing defenses and run backlines into the ground. So far, interim coach Adrian Gonzalez has pushed all the right buttons, never moreso than in Saturday's tricky-in-theory home outing against Gotham.
Gotham, one week after the failed Tierna-Davidson-at-left-back experiment against KC went back to their more standard 4-3-3 with Jenna Nighswonger re-taking her place at LB and Emily Sonnett sitting behind eight combo of Delanie Sheehan and Yazmeen Ryan. Gotham, as is their wont, rotated their front five throughout, Esther dropping into the midfield and pushing Ryan high into the wide spaces. Although not unusual for Esther to drop deep, she virtually played as a third eight against Washington, functionally leaving Gotham without a striker. Katie Stengel, in theory, should be filling the spaces that Esther vacates when the Spanish striker goes on her frequent forays into her own midfield, but she really didn't, instead often getting in the way of Lynn Williams on the left wing as shown in the pass map graphic below.
Gotham manager Juan Carlos Amoros hasn't really changed up Gotham's tactics this season, but their rotations simply haven't been as fluid as they were during Gotham's title charge at the back end of last season. Part of the issue is that the loss of Midge Purce to a torn ACL early in the season has thrown off the balance of the front line, with opposing defenses having the ability to clog the middle without fretting about needing to handle speed on both wings. Despite her versatility, Amoros has been reluctant to start (one of many) marquee signing(s) Crystal Dunn so far this season, preferring Stengel in his front line, and Ryan and Sheehan in the midfield. Ryan's proclivity to float out to the right wing meant that most of Gotham's attacking sequences came down the left side, with Williams occasionally rotating centrally. The Spirit's double pivot of Andi Sullivan and rookie Hal Hershfelt didn't have much of an issue with Gotham's positional movements, sitting in front of the backline and passing off Gotham's rotations seamlessly. Gotham were so poor in the first half that they accumulated less than 0.25 xG, rarely coming close to threatening Spirit keeper Aubrey Kingsbury.
A feature of Amoros' sides that I seem to mention every week is the high line. They were fortunate to get away with it against Sophia Smith in Portland in Week 2, very much did not get away with last week against Temwa Chawinga and Kansas City, and were similarly burned by Trinity Rodman and the Spirit on Saturday. The Spirit have established an identity through five weeks under interim manager Gonzalez, utilizing a balanced midfield shape to lull the opposition asleep before hitting long diagonals over the top to Trinity Rodman. Aside from Ashley Hatch (we'll get to her shortly), the Spirit's shape generally looks like one you would see on a tactics board if you were to draw out what a 4-2-3-1 should look like. Hershfelt and Sullivan each cover halves of the defensive midfield, and rookie Croix Bethune floats around in front of them and waits for opportunities to find Rodman isolated against a fullback. Sullivan, who was frequently exposed as a single pivot both at the base of the Spirit's diamond in 2023 and during her recent stint as the USWNT's six, has been freed by the steadying presence of Hershfelt and looks much more like the all-action six that she has been for most of her pro career. Much like Orlando's double pivot, the Spirit holding duo have a clear push-pull understanding where one has the license to step high to pick off passes in the midfield while the other sits and holds. The double pivot has been the basis for the Spirit's newfound stability in 2024, and has freed up fullbacks Gabby Carle and Casey Krueger to venture forward more frequently.
The Spirit's bread and butter is the diagonal, which typically comes from Bethune. The rookie has fit right into the Spirit's starting 11, scoring in three straight games --including a go-ahead thumper on her left foot in this one-- and providing some much needed creativity in front of the Spirit's double pivot. Bethune plays with flair, but rarely dallies on the ball and is excellent at identifying when Rodman has mismatches. Against Gotham, Gonzalez had Hatch and Rodman swap wings 20 minutes in, moving Rodman to the left to target Gotham RB Bruninha. Bruninha is good in possession and a decent 1v1 defender, but she had absolutely no chance with the pace and physicality of Rodman, who torched Bruninha time after time in the first half. Only Rodman's suspect finishing and some heroics from Gotham GK Cassie Miller prevented even more damage from being done in the first half, with both Rodman and Sarr taking advantage of the space Gotham's high line affords.
The Spirit have won four straight, are second in the league, and are beginning to look like a well-oiled machine, but there has been one player who has not been a beneficiary of the new regime. Spirit striker Ashley Hatch has been shifted to the wing to allow Sarr to take up central positions and lead the Spirit's press. This has, to put it lightly, been an absolutely massive failure. There is a lot going on in the graphic below, so let's highlight a few points:
Hatch's statistical profile this year aligns most with the "ball playing midfielder" classification. This means that she's really not even playing as a true winger, but more as an inverted FB who helps with the Spirit's shape and ball retention.
Hatch is adding nearly nothing to the Spirit attack, ranking near the bottom of the NWSL in xG+ per 90 (essentially how much value a player adds to their team's goal scoring efforts).
Hatch is, as we all know, a pure target forward. She wants to receive the ball in two spaces: Either with her back to goal, or directly in front of goal. Hatch is not a bad connector and sees the field well, but she's not one to help with ball progression. In other words, playing her on the wing is not only bad for Hatch, it takes away an entire side of the field for the Spirit.
In my game notes, I wrote "Hatch may not be long for this Spirit roster," forgetting that they just signed her to a three year contract in the offseason. Hatch has been 1/3 of the Spirit's young core over the past three seasons and fans would be understandably disappointed to lose her, but Kang and GM Mark Krikorian DID just trade the other non-Rodman third of that trio in the offseason and are clearly reshaping the roster, making me think that there's a decent chance Hatch is traded in the offseason. She might never re-enter the national team picture with the plethora of attacking options, but Hatch will, understandably, feel like she is neither helping the team or herself in the Spirit's current setup.
Quick Hits:
Canadian FB Gabby Carle has thrived in the Spirit's wing-heavy system. Carle showed off her overlapping abilities in Canada's 3-4-3, and is prone to a nice diagonal ball herself, often connecting with Sarr through the middle. Carle was particularly good against Gotham, leading the Spirit in xT by a wide margin.
Tierna Davidson pulled her hamstring in the first half, making her the second starting USWNT to suffer a muscle injury months before the Olympics. Not ideal!
Gotham signed veteran Chelsea Ann-Katherine Berger on deadline day for no apparent reason. Starter Cassie Miller has been excellent, and Gotham have two experienced backups in Michelle Betos and the injured Abby Smith.
Casey Krueger has been her typical brilliant self at left back, and has freed Rodman to spend most of her time in the opposition half. Last season, Rodman was forced to do a lot of defensive work, and Krueger's arrival has let the young star's attacking talents shine.
Game 4: Seattle Reign 1-2 Chicago Red Stars
You know that meme of Gordon Ramsay where he's comforting a child in the first image and yelling at an adult in the second? Yeah, that's what watching the Reign play the Red Stars feels like. Two teams with limited offensive firepower. Two pragmatic coaches seeing who can out-pragmatic the other. Anyhow, I made the meme because I couldn't resist.
Comparing the Reign to the Red Stars is unfair to Lorne Donaldson's side for a few reasons:
The Red Stars in the first year of a complete rebuild and Donaldson is in his first season as manager. The Reign have had some ownership issues of their own, but have been stuttering for a year and half without any real improvement after their shield winning 2022.
The Red Stars play with a style, while the Reign are caught in between two.
The Red Stars have a superstar attacker, and while the Reign do now have Ji So Yun, they might not have another top 30 player on their roster.
The contrast between the Red Stars and the Reign was clear from the jump on Sunday night in Seattle. Donaldson set up Chicago as he has done throughout the first five games of the his tenure: In the most classic of 4-4-2s with Swanson and Ally Schlegel up top and two very obvious banks of four behind the two strikers. With German RB Maxi Rall out with a leg injury, Tatumn Milazzo shifted over from LB and young Taylor Malham retook her LB position.
Chicago's hot start to the season has been for the reasons most would have predicted (solid shape, good defense), but the offensive output has been greater than expected. The Red Stars' intelligent (re)build-from-the-back strategy has paid off through five weeks, with new signings Natalia Kuikka, Sam Staab, Rall, and Malham all gelling smoothly behind Chicago's midfield duo of Cari Roccaro and Julia Bianchi. Chicago's defense has been good: They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed through five weeks, behind only San Diego and their four games played. They have not however, been the steel trap some would have expected given their strong start to the season, ranking 9th in the league in xG conceded.
Chicago's style is easy to describe because the 4-4-2 sticks in and out of possession. In possession, Swanson and Schlegel play nearly on top of each-other, one dropping a little deeper to provide an option while the other stays high. In the screenshot below, it's Swanson. Swanson is often type-cast as a speed merchant, but Chicago frequently uses her from deep. In fact, Swanson picking up the ball from deep and sprinting past Seattle's static midfield before playing Schlegel in was how the Red Stars scored their first goal.
The 4-4-2 also works because the two central midfielders and two center backs have already developed a relationship. It helps that both Staab, Kuikka, Rall (when healthy), and Millazzo are all excellent (relative to the rest of the NWSL) ball playing defenders. You can see the possession lines in the pass map graphic above: Chicago's defense is perfectly comfortable playing the ball around, using Roccaro and Bianchi as outlet balls, but rarely forcing the ball into midfield or taking unnecessary risks. Both Staab and Kuikka can hit a diagonal, and they often look for Swanson or Schlegel long after extended periods of possession.
Out of possession, Chicago sticks in their two banks of four and defends. They generally keep their defensive shape narrow, funneling the ball to the wings and then trapping the receiver against the sideline with the wide midfielder and fullback. Their two wide midfielders do not play as wingers- This is a true 4-4-2, which means that Penelope Hocking and Jenna Bike sit right in front of their FBs. When the Red Stars have a lead --and sometimes even when they don't-- Swanson and Schlegel will drop in as shown in the screenshot below, forcing the opposition to attack against all ten Red Stars field players. Chicago will throw the rare 4-2 press at a back line as they did against Seattle early on Sunday, with Swanson and Schlegel doubling an opposition FB while the midfield four step high. For the most part, however, Chicago keeps their defensive line of engagement low, trusting that their shape can handle opposing attacks.
Chicago and Donaldson deserve all the credit for their early season turnaround from the calamitous last few seasons while their sale was finalized, but playing the Reign twice in their first five matches has been a nice bump. Harvey has apparently already ditched the 4-1-2-1-2 diamond she started the season in for a slightly (?) more aggressive version of the same suffer-ball, bringing 17 year old Emeri Adames in for Quinn and shifting to a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid. LB Lily Woodham continues to be the Reign's most aggressive attacking option and Adames (who models her game after Manchester City's Phil Foden including using his number), is a fun player. As usual, most of Seattle's threat came through their FBs, as the combination of Chicago's "force the ball wide" strategy and Seattle's own lack of creativity pushed the ball into Sofia Huerta and Woodham's path even more often than usual. Ji had one of her quieter games as a result of the formation shift and Chicago's emphasis on clogging the midfield, failing to get on the ball as much as she had in the first four weeks of her Reign career.
The Reign had the better of the ball and generated more pressure than Chicago, but most of this was by design. Seattle's top three (!) players in terms of xT were ALL defenders! In terms of net xT, Seattle had by FAR the better of the play, but the worst combination to see, especially against a team like Chicago, is a high xT differential and low xG, because in theory, those two stats should match. When they don't -- Seattle accumulated only 0.79 xG and their lone goal was a 30 yard screamer from Tziarra King-- it's merely possession without purpose.....which a team like the Red Stars will eat up.
Quick Hits:
Harvey and Stoney share the same reluctance to play the speed. After rarely giving former winger Elyse Bennett a chance before trading her to SD, Harvey has locked King to the bench, despite King being the only Reign player with any pace at all.
Swanson is fully back to MVP levels. One thing you instantly notice with Swanson is that she has no wasted movements. Every touch is decisive, she releases into space quickly, and she's back to gliding through defenders with her short strides. Donaldson, unsurprisingly given their existing relationship from their Colorado youth soccer days, knows exactly how to use her and it has paid immediate dividends for the Red Stars.
Credit to Hocking and Bike, both who have somewhat thankless tasks in the 4-4-2 that they execute very well.
The Reign stuck poor Olivia Van der Jagt in the lone six for large stretches of this one, and Swanson and Schlegel dropped in to swarm her like bees. Stick to the double pivot, Laura.
Seattle's crowd remains among the deadest in the league. I thought the game was in Chicago for about 20 minutes.
Seattle's lack of identity is worth reinforcing: They can't sit and kick because they have no speed and they can't keep the ball and play beautiful attacking soccer because they don't have the personnel. Just an icky team to watch.
Player of the Week: Summer Yates, Orlando Pride
Goal of the Week: This belter from Seattle's Tziarra King, though it came in a losing effort: